return on investment — methodology

Interpreting the ROI results

Understanding both the amount of money that can be saved and the health outcomes that can be used to understand the return on investment from Public Health interventions. This allows state and local public health departments to calculate their implicit return from investing in prevention and control efforts, and to identify which conditions they should focus on, in which areas, and for which populations. In short, information on the economic burden of chronic diseases at the local level provides policy makers with information needed to develop interventions and prevention programs.

The Return on Investment (ROI) of a project is calculated by dividing the net savings by the amount of the investment:

ROI = Net Saving/Investment

For Chronic Disease Prevention Programs (CDPP), ‘Investment’ refers to the cost associated with starting up and maintaining the program over time, and ‘Net Savings’ is the cost savings from the program. Unlike other types of economic evaluations, such as Cost Effectiveness or Cost Utility, the ROI does not incorporate health outcomes directly. Rather, any changes in health outcomes, whether it be changes in life expectancy, quality of life, or other measurable outcomes, must be represented in monetary units and included in the Net Savings. In this way, the ROI is closer to another type of economic evaluation – Cost Benefit analysis – than to other types of economic evaluations.

In the explanation of the methodology of ROI portion of the TOOL below:

  • ‘X’ is the number of years for the ROI that was entered.
  • ‘Target group’ is determined by the size and demographics of the group that was entered
  • ‘Y’ is the number of years when the CDPP will reduce
  • ‘Z’ is the anticipated effectiveness of the CDPP

The ROI portion of the TOOL uses the following methodology:

  • Estimate the number of cases of the Chronic Disease(s) without the CDPP in ‘X’ years

The number of cases without the CDPP is determined using the initial population of the target group (at the start of the CDPP), and the rates of the chronic disease(s) that would be expected in each of X years. The rates in each subsequent year is estimated using the rate in year t that the target group will be in year t+1. That is, if the CDPP targeted a group of 1000 40 year old males in year 1 and the program was expected to followed over X years, then the expected rates of the target group in year t+1 (when they would be 41) would be the rates of the 41 year old males in year t. Similarly, the rates of the target group in year t+2 (when they would be 42) would be the rates of the 42 year old males in year t. The rates of the target group in year X would then be the rates of the corresponding group (40 + X-1) in year t.

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  • Estimate the number of cases of the Chronic Disease(s) with the CDPP in ‘X’ years

The methodology described above for estimating the number of cases without the Chronic Disease is amended to estimate the number of cases with the chronic disease. Using the same methodology, the impact of the CDPP is shown through the reduction in the rates (and therefore the number of cases) in ‘Y’ years (as entered by the TOOL user). The percentage of reduction ‘Z’ is then used to adjust the rates between years Y and X, so that a 100% effectiveness of the program (‘Z’ = 100%) will mean there is no increase in the chronic disease after year Y, which an effectiveness of 0% means that the rates of chronic disease after year Y is the same as the rate without the CDPP.

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  • Estimate the number of cases of the Chronic Disease(s) without the CDPP in ‘X’ years
  • Estimate the total costs over ‘X’ years (without QALYs) with and without the CDPP

The number of cases for years t to t+X are multiplied by the cost-per-case (described in the Cost methodology of the TOOL) both with and without the CDPP. The difference is the Net Savings from the CDPP (not including the value of the QALYs).

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  • Estimate the number of cases of the Chronic Disease(s) without the CDPP in ‘X’ years
  • Estimate the number of cases of the Chronic Disease(s) without the CDPP in ‘X’ years
  • Estimate the total value of the QALYs over ‘X’ years with and without the CDPP

The number of cases for years t to t+X are multiplied by the utility losses (described in the Cost methodology of the TOOL) both with and without the CDPP. The difference is the total QALY savings from the CDPP.

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  • Estimate the number of cases of the Chronic Disease(s) without the CDPP in ‘X’ years
  • Estimate the number of cases of the Chronic Disease(s) without the CDPP in ‘X’ years
  • Total Investment
  • Total Investment

The investment cost is the cost associated with starting and maintain the CDPP. The aim is to include only the additional cost of the investment, so it is assumed that the user has identified:

  • Initial, one-time investment cost (start of program) plus
  • The cost of the program in the first year
  • Cost of the program each additional year

The total investment cost is the sum of these two activities.

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  • Estimate the number of cases of the Chronic Disease(s) without the CDPP in ‘X’ years
  • Estimate the number of cases of the Chronic Disease(s) without the CDPP in ‘X’ years
  • Total Investment
  • Total Investment
  • ROI Calculation (without QALYs)

The ROI calculation without QALYs is:

Net savings = Total Cost without CDPP – Total Cost with CDPP

ROI = Net Saving/Investment

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  • Estimate the number of cases of the Chronic Disease(s) without the CDPP in ‘X’ years
  • Estimate the number of cases of the Chronic Disease(s) without the CDPP in ‘X’ years
  • Total Investment
  • Total Investment
  • ROI Calculation (without QALYs)
  • ROI with QALYs losses:

The ROI calculation with QALYs is:

Net savings = (Total Cost without CDPP – Total Cost with CDPP) + (Total utility loss without program – Total utility loss with program ) × Value of a QALY

ROI = Net Saving/Investment

In developing the ROI TOOL, there is a tradeoff between ease of use and the flexibility of the TOOL. While it is, in theory, possible to alter the ROI TOOL to allow users more flexibility, the tradeoff would complexity.

Using the Return on Investment Tool

In order to use our tool, you will need to know:

  • County or region of your program – You can choose a single county, a region, or the entire State of California
  • Chronic disease or diseases that your program is targeting – You can choose one program or multiple programs
  • Age - You can choose one age or enter an age range.
  • Ethnicities – You can choose one or more ethnicities or all the ethnicities
  • Gender – You can specify male, female, or both
  • Size of your target group – The number of people in your program. The default will be all in the county or region
  • Anticipated effectiveness of your program – Refers to the % of reduction in the chronic condition that you expect from your program
  • How many years until you expect to see reductions in chronic conditions – This is number of years until you expect to see your program reduce rates of your targeted chronic conditions
  • Number of years for your ROI (X) – You will be asked how many years you want to project out in the future to calculate your ROI
  • Initial cost of your program – This refers to the cost of establishing and running your chronic disease prevention program in the first year
  • Ongoing cost of your program - This refers to the cost of running your chronic disease prevention program in each subsequent year
  • Number of years your program will be operating – You will be asked how many years you expect your program be funded
  • Discount rate – If you want to have future costs and health outcomes discounted, we will allow a 3% discount rate
  • Value of a QALY – You can enter your own value for a QALY. The default will be $50,000 per QALY

In the results below:

  • ‘X’ is the number of years for your ROI that you entered.
  • ‘Target group’ is determined by the size and demographics of the group that you entered
  • Value of a QALY is either the number you entered above or $50000 per QALY. The results from the ROI TOOL will show:

Without program

With program

Difference

Cases in ‘X’ years

The number of cases of the chronic disease(s) that your target group will have in ‘X’ years with and without the program

Total costs over ‘X’ years (without QALYs)

Total cost of the chronic disease(s) for your target group with and without the program.  Equal to the sum over X years of cost per case x cases per year

Total QALYs over ‘X’ years

Total QALYs for your target group with and without the program.   Equal to the sum over X years of utility loss per case x cases per year

Total Investment

$0

Initial cost of your program + Ongoing cost of your program X  Equal to the initial cost of your program + (X-1) x Ongoing cost of your program per year

Return on investment (without QALYs)

(Total Cost without Program – Total Cost with Program)/Investment

Return on investment (with QALYs)

[(Total Cost without Program – Total Cost with Program) + (Total utility loss without program - Total utility loss with program )x Value of a QALY]/Investment   

Return on Investment (with discounting)

Return on investment with the QALYs but with all future cost savings and utility savings discounted at the rate of 3%

Click here to go the Return on Investment Tool.